World Cup Best Bets: Odds, Picks and Predictions for Wednesday, Nov. 23 – Can Canada Surprise? – RotoWire
This article is part of our World Cup series.
Three big favorites dominate Wednesday’s slate of World Cup matches, but an evenly-matched contest between Croatia and Morocco kicks things off. Can anyone pull off a Saudi Arabia-like upset or will the favorites all come through with three points?
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Croatia are favored and the better overall team, but these teams aren’t as lopsided as some think in terms of talent. The difference is in the midfield where Croatia should control things between Luka Modric, Marcelo Brozovic and Mateo Kovacic. While I like Morocco’s back line, I’m not sure that’ll be enough to get three points if they can’t advance the ball with regularity.
Instead of taking Croatia on the moneyline, I’m looking to corners where you can get them +125 in the race to six corners. I think scoring will be difficult for both sides, but Croatia should have the majority of possession and they’re a team that loves to cross, which should lead to plenty of corners.
There has been a lot of media talk about Japan, but that’s not seen in the odds as Germany are expected to win easily with a lot of goals. In fact, there’s a chance all of the American media is overrating Japan based off a dominant friendly win against the United States earlier this year.
That being the case, I think Japan have enough quality to find the back of the net against what could be the weakness of the German team. Most Germany matches are up and down and I don’t think Japan will be afraid to play like that, which has me looking at both teams to score no draw at +150.
Instead of banking on a minimum of three goals in this match, I’ll turn to a corner bet and take Germany over 6.5 corners at +115. Germany aren’t going to sit back in this match and that’s going to lead to corners.
This is a tough opener for Costa Rica, as there’s a chance they don’t surpass 20-percent possession or take more than two or three shots. Since the odds imply that to happen, it’s not the easiest to bet on with Spain to win in a shutout at -200.
Because of that, I’m getting kind of wild with this bet, taking Spain -4.5 corners at -110. Costa Rica are projected to get two corners and as long as Spain don’t score three goals in the first half and don’t push the rest of the way, I think they’ll get to at least seven corners. Instead of taking Spain over 6.5 corners at -135, I’ll get better odds on the head-to-head corner battle.
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I don’t think this is the tournament for Belgium unless their back line becomes elite overnight. Despite being considered one of the best teams in the world, they may be starting passed-their-prime defenders Jan Vertonghen and Toby Alderweireld with 19-year-old Zeno Koen Debast. While Kevin De Bruyne is awesome, the absence of Romelu Lukaku doesn’t help and they don’t have enough around him to truly control a match.
Canada are built on speed and will work off the counter against what’s mostly a slow back line. I think Canada double chance +165 is a great option, but I never feel great about backing a team composed of a lot of MLS players. Belgium still lack at a few areas, yet it can’t be overlooked that Canadian central midfielder Atiba Hutchinson is 39 years old.
Instead of taking Canada, I’ll go both teams to score at -125. I think there will be goals and that’s a bit safer than taking Canada to steal a point or three.
Visit RotoWire all season for exclusive sports betting picks and our weekly Kits & Wagers betting show. Remember that betting apps vary in terms of odds, so we have an easy-to-use odds page that allows you to shop for the best lines at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and PointsBet. You can also use the WynnBET promo code for $100 in free bets.